I visited today Pentaxforums and found a link to a page predicting a doomed future for Pentax, Fujifilm, Olympus, Hasselblad and Sigma in the world of dSLR. That page contains the 2009 predictions by a self-proclaimed Nikon expert, Thom Hogan, who possibly considers himself (on that base) qualified to predict the future of the whole photography industry.
And I couldn't avoid to remember some bold predictions from a few tech gurus & experts who had published their brilliant views a few years ago. Here I will summarize some of them.
Different people predicted, in a total of 52 occasions since 1995 to 2002, that Apple would die soon. Further info in the Apple Death Knell Counter.
Surprisingly enough, these days the levels of capitalization of Apple are starting to make nervous Microsoft. And surprisingly enough, Apple is universally considered as an extremely successful company in 2008.
Microsoft Vista was going to be, without the shade of a doubt, the most successful version of Windows ever. It was declared a resounding success even before its official launch.
Surprisingly enough, these days nobody thinks Vista was anything remotely similar to a success. It has given Microsoft even worse reputation than the company had before. And even Microsoft is focusing its promotional efforts on Windows 7, in the hope that it will make people forget the catastrophe named Vista.
According to Steve Ballmer, that visionary, the iPhone had no chances to get a significant share in the highly competitive market of the highly specced phones.
Surprisingly enough, today the iPhone has taken the number 1 spot in the list of best seller high end phones in the USA, outcompeting Motorola RAZR.
The iPod was a ridiculously expensive gadget when it was released, and wise people stated that nobody would spend that money on an mp3 player. Another visionary of technology, Bill Gates, stated later that the iPod succes would not last for long.
Surprisingly enough, these days the iPod has pretty much wiped the floor with the competition, to the point that iPod is a synonymous word to mp3 player in the mind of most teenagers. Further: the sales of even the much hyped Zune, the player from Microsoft that would kill the iPod, have been really poor and if Microsoft was not behind, with all its millions, any serious company would have pulled the Zune from the market long ago, due to its lack of success.
I don't know if you laughed enough, but I think those examples illustrate well my point:
No supposed tech expert or guru has any idea on what the future holds, regarding the success or failure of companies in the world of technology, be it computers, mp3 players, dSLR cameras or any other kind of product. Experts are good to predict the future when it already happened, but when faced to their own words in the past, they look ridiculous often.
Tuesday, 11 November 2008
Friday, 7 November 2008
Some pictures from Prague and Ceskê Budejovice
Last september I had the pleasure of visiting the Czech Republic due to professional reasons. I took some pictures and maybe a few are worth to see, besides the first I posted of Prague at night. These are taken in Prague and Ceskê Budejovice. And given I am a humble amateur photographer, they were taken with my beloved Pentax K10D and the standard 18/55 lenses: no fancy, expensive stuff around.
Wednesday, 5 November 2008
High hopes, big challenges
Yesterday I discussed with my wife that the (predictable) victory of Obama reminds me a lot of a little piece of history of my own country:
Back in 1982, Felipe González, a young lawyer from the Socialist Party, won the elections in Spain. It was the first government from the left in 50 years in Spain, after the dictatorship of Franco and initial governments from a center party which disappeared quickly.
González (or rather, Felipe, as he has always been known) had done a model campaign, and he received a massive support from voters, who deposited in him huge expectations in order to change deeply the situation in my country, which was extremely compromised at that time. He explained, years later, that the night after winning the elections he felt absolutely overwhelmed by the tremendous responsabilities in face of him. I bet Obama must feel more or less the same by now.
Felipe was the president of Spain from 1982 to 1996. His initial governments made a very significant labour of modernization in the Spanish economy, and provoked strong changes in many aspects of our society, from social security to sanitary assistance, from obsolete industries to international relationships. He achieved, after long efforts, an agreement to join the European Union, which proved to be among the best moves he could have done. And to summarize, he was responsible of an unbelievable transformation in Spain, from a forgotten place to go to beaches (as it was seen in the mid 70s) to a respected country that showed to the world that you can move peacifully from a dictatorship to a modern, full blown democracy, with a voice that was heard out and loud in international institutions.
Back to Obama, his task at this point is nothing short of amazing: The previous, catastrophic governments of GW Bush (may this guy be forgotten quickly) have put the USA in a very dangerous economic position; their prestige in international politics is nowhere to be found at the moment, with a president which signed some of the worst decisions in the modern history of the USA. The conflicts in Irak and Afhganistan are far from being solved. And all this has caused, judging from what I read, a low degree of self-esteem in the country as a whole, which has been outlined by Obama in more than one occasion. This sad legacy also reminds me of the legacy received by Felipe González: Adolfo Suárez, the former president, was busy enough while trying to move from a dictatorship to a democracy, and trying to calm down the extreme right forces in Spain so that there was no involution. He was a stunning president from many points of view, but could not approach the required modernization of the country: that task was completely up to Felipe González. As it is now up to Obama to move on, forget about the disaster of GW Bush, and convinced his own country, and the world, that things can actually change.
I hope he's has successful as Felipe González was. And I also hope he does not end his government with the many scandals of corruption that plagued the last, forgettable governments of Felipe González.
Back in 1982, Felipe González, a young lawyer from the Socialist Party, won the elections in Spain. It was the first government from the left in 50 years in Spain, after the dictatorship of Franco and initial governments from a center party which disappeared quickly.
González (or rather, Felipe, as he has always been known) had done a model campaign, and he received a massive support from voters, who deposited in him huge expectations in order to change deeply the situation in my country, which was extremely compromised at that time. He explained, years later, that the night after winning the elections he felt absolutely overwhelmed by the tremendous responsabilities in face of him. I bet Obama must feel more or less the same by now.
Felipe was the president of Spain from 1982 to 1996. His initial governments made a very significant labour of modernization in the Spanish economy, and provoked strong changes in many aspects of our society, from social security to sanitary assistance, from obsolete industries to international relationships. He achieved, after long efforts, an agreement to join the European Union, which proved to be among the best moves he could have done. And to summarize, he was responsible of an unbelievable transformation in Spain, from a forgotten place to go to beaches (as it was seen in the mid 70s) to a respected country that showed to the world that you can move peacifully from a dictatorship to a modern, full blown democracy, with a voice that was heard out and loud in international institutions.
Back to Obama, his task at this point is nothing short of amazing: The previous, catastrophic governments of GW Bush (may this guy be forgotten quickly) have put the USA in a very dangerous economic position; their prestige in international politics is nowhere to be found at the moment, with a president which signed some of the worst decisions in the modern history of the USA. The conflicts in Irak and Afhganistan are far from being solved. And all this has caused, judging from what I read, a low degree of self-esteem in the country as a whole, which has been outlined by Obama in more than one occasion. This sad legacy also reminds me of the legacy received by Felipe González: Adolfo Suárez, the former president, was busy enough while trying to move from a dictatorship to a democracy, and trying to calm down the extreme right forces in Spain so that there was no involution. He was a stunning president from many points of view, but could not approach the required modernization of the country: that task was completely up to Felipe González. As it is now up to Obama to move on, forget about the disaster of GW Bush, and convinced his own country, and the world, that things can actually change.
I hope he's has successful as Felipe González was. And I also hope he does not end his government with the many scandals of corruption that plagued the last, forgettable governments of Felipe González.
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